Something has shifted in the world of the 11+. The families sitting across from each other in waiting rooms, comparing notes on practice papers and tutor recommendations — many of them were not expecting to be here. A year ago, perhaps two, the plan was different. Private school was the route. The 11+ was something other people did.

Then came the VAT.

Understanding what is happening in the wider education landscape will not change how the 11+ works, or make the preparation easier. But it does put context around something that many families are feeling right now: that the 11+ feels more competitive than it used to. That there are more children chasing the same number of places. That the stakes feel higher than they did even a few years ago.

Those feelings are not imaginary. Here is what the data actually shows.

What happened when VAT arrived

On 1 January 2025, the UK government removed the longstanding VAT exemption on private school fees, adding 20% to the cost of independent education. The Independent Schools Council reported that average fees jumped 23% between January 2024 and January 2025 — a combination of the tax itself and the annual fee increase that arrived at the same time (Independent Schools Council, 2025).

For many families, that rise was the tipping point. Government officials had forecast that around 37,000 pupils would leave the independent sector as a result of VAT. They were already 30,000 short of that figure within the first year — but the direction of travel was clear (City A.M., 2026). More than 100 independent schools closed in 2025, affecting over 25,000 children (Conservative Post, 2026). Fifteen were absorbed through mergers; the rest shut entirely.

Private school enrolment among younger pupils fell sharply. Year 1 intake dropped by 6.6%. Year 3 — the main entry year for preparatory schools — fell by 6.2%. These are not marginal shifts. They represent thousands of children who are now in or entering the state system, whose parents had not originally planned for the 11+ to be part of their education story.

Where those families are going

Grammar schools offer something that very few other state options can match: selective, academically focused secondary education, free at the point of entry. For families who have just absorbed a significant and unexpected increase in school fees, or who have found their child's independent school has merged or closed, grammar schools represent an obvious alternative.

The 163 grammar schools currently operating in England have not changed in number. They cannot expand significantly — under the School Standards and Framework Act 1998, no new maintained grammar schools can be opened, and existing schools cannot introduce new selection by ability (House of Commons Library, 2024). The supply is fixed. The demand is rising.

This matters practically for families preparing for the 11+. Grammar schools in areas with the highest concentration of private school pupils — the Home Counties recorded the steepest declines in independent school enrolment through 2024-25 — are likely to see the most pronounced increase in competition (GBNews, 2026). In parts of London, the ratio of applicants to places at highly competitive grammar schools was already running at over 30 to 1. That number is unlikely to improve.

This does not change what you need to do

It would be easy to read all of this and feel anxious. That is understandable. But here is what actually matters for your child's preparation: none of this changes what the 11+ tests for, how it is marked, or what a child needs to do in order to do well.

Grammar schools are still looking for the same things they have always looked for: strong reasoning ability, mathematical fluency, reading comprehension, and — in most GL Assessment papers — creative writing. The exam format your target school uses determines the specific content. The underlying skills it tests are the same regardless of how many children are sitting next to yours.

What the increased competition does change is the margin for error. In a highly competitive area, a child who has prepared thoroughly will be better positioned than one who has prepared inconsistently — not because the bar has officially moved, but because the cohort is stronger. Consistent, well-structured preparation over time matters more than it ever did.

The 11+ preparation timeline has always favoured families who start early and build gradually. That remains true. But the data above is a clear signal that this is not the year to leave preparation late.

A note on what this is not

The increased competition in grammar school applications is real. But it is not a reason to panic, to increase the intensity of preparation to the point where your child is miserable, or to treat the 11+ as a make-or-break moment that defines their future.

If you are wondering when the right time to start is, the honest answer has not changed: earlier is generally better, provided the preparation is calm, consistent, and appropriate for the child's age. A child who builds the right habits in Year 3 is far better placed than one who attempts to cram in Year 6 — regardless of what is happening in the wider education landscape.

The families who navigate this well are not the ones who panic. They are the ones who plan.

References

City A.M. (2026) 'Number of private school pupils plummets after Labour's VAT hike on fees', City A.M., June. Available at: https://www.cityam.com/number-of-private-school-pupils-plummets-after-labours-vat-hike-on-fees/ (Accessed: 26 June 2026).

Conservative Post (2026) 'Labour's VAT raid on private schools forces 105 closures and leaves 25,000 children paying the price', Conservative Post, 5 January. Available at: https://conservativepost.co.uk/labours-vat-raid-on-private-schools-forces-105-closures-and-leaves-25000-children-paying-the-price/ (Accessed: 26 June 2026).

GBNews (2026) 'Tax news: Home Counties hit hardest by Labour's VAT private school raid', GBNews, 4 January. Available at: https://www.gbnews.com/money/tax-news-labour-vat-private-schools (Accessed: 26 June 2026).

House of Commons Library (2024) Grammar Schools in England. Available at: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01398/ (Accessed: 26 June 2026).

Independent Schools Council (2025) ISC Annual Census 2025. Available at: https://www.isc.co.uk/research/ (Accessed: 26 June 2026).